Recently, the internal meeting of the real estate industry has revealed information, and relevant parties are studying and observing the effects of the current real estate control policies. After a period of time, if the control effect does not improve significantly, the possibility of adjusting the policy is not ruled out.
The "New Five Articles" has been in place for nearly two months, and the transaction volume of many properties has plummeted, but the pressure of rising house prices still exists. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the prices of new commercial housing (excluding affordable housing) in 67 cities in 70 large and medium-sized cities rose in April.
Analysts believe that after the introduction of the policy, the market turnover has fluctuated drastically. In many cities, the supply of housing has decreased, and the pressure of rising house prices still exists. It is feared that the regulation will fall into the strange circle of “more and more.â€
The reporter was informed that in response to the current market changes, the decision-making level is studying and evaluating, and it is planned to make a decision on whether to adjust the policy after a period of observation.
After the introduction of the “New Five Articlesâ€, individual clauses triggered market disputes. Among them, the second-hand housing tax new policy has caused the turnover of second-hand housing in many places. In the process of implementing the policies, various localities also resorted to a strong administrative means such as “limit ordersâ€, resulting in a shortage of market supply and strong expectations for rising house prices.
In fact, despite the strict policy provisions, many localities have risen in disguise and other prices, which has weakened the effect of the policy to a certain extent. Recently, frequent auctions of high-priced land in Beijing and other places have also highlighted the bullish mentality of housing companies on the market outlook.
The industry believes that the recent decision-making level has very little to say about real estate regulation, which is intended to dilute regulation and observe the effect. If house prices continue to rise in the future, the market indicators have not improved, and it is not ruled out that the individual terms of the policy will be adjusted as soon as possible in the second half of this year.
Against the background that urbanization will continue to release a large amount of housing demand, the administrative color-intensive regulation and control measures are not conducive to the stability of the real estate market, which in turn affects the urbanization process and economic trends. Many institutions believe that "de-administration" will become the direction of future regulation.
Property tax may be one of the above “long-term regulation†measures. The China Securities Journal reporter was informed that the multi-local property tax pilot program has been reported. After more than two years of pilot projects in Shanghai and Chongqing, it is not excluded that the tax will be expanded during the year.
The property tax pilot will be expanded in the short-term or small-scale, and may be mainly for incremental housing. Differentiated credit and tax policies will become the norm in the future. The policy of restrictive purchase of housing with strong administrative color may be gradually released with the reform of the system of land and household registration, but it will still exist in the short term.
Most analysts believe that the real estate market may maintain a moderate recovery trend in the future, but from the indicators of trading volume and prosperity index, the market will still be at a low level.
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